Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 40¢ · $688 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$687.89
$35.42
57.2¢ → 40¢
-30% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1151h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 58¢ | $1.96 | $303.83 | -$125.63 | 52% 999-914 (1913) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 15.5¢ | $42.69 | $223.86 | +$121.94 | 53% 356-310 (666) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $34.15 | $70.84 | +$36.69 | 37% 1928-3336 (5264) |
 archaic<$100 | Yesavg 70.5¢ | $71.46 | $60.09 | -$11.37 | 84% 1815-334 (2149) |
BI BikesAreTheBikes<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $10.27 | $21.31 | +$11.03 | 39% 1744-2698 (4442) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $5.2 | $7.97 | +$2.76 | 48% 2006-2187 (4193) |
Invested
$1.96
Value
$303.83
PnL
-$125.63
Record
52%
999-914 (1913)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$42.69
Value
$223.86
PnL
+$121.94
Record
53%
356-310 (666)
Invested
$34.15
Value
$70.84
PnL
+$36.69
Record
37%
1928-3336 (5264)
archaic<$100Invested
$71.46
Value
$60.09
PnL
-$11.37
Record
84%
1815-334 (2149)
Invested
$10.27
Value
$21.31
PnL
+$11.03
Record
39%
1744-2698 (4442)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$7.97
PnL
+$2.76
Record
48%
2006-2187 (4193)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.