Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 27¢ · $5K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$4.7K
-$592.07
60.7¢ → 26.5¢
-56% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1152h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 60.9¢ | $4.0K | $2.3K | $-1.7K | 52% 1000-920 (1920) |
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 29.2¢ | $692.72 | $1.7K | +$1.0K | 53% 3027-2635 (5662) |
 tetrase | Yesavg 72.6¢ | $397.32 | $402.24 | +$4.92 | 60% 786-531 (1317) |
 StarMaster | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $195.75 | $261.66 | +$25.49 | 53% 1780-1574 (3354) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $27.39 | $19.95 | -$7.43 | 39% 1745-2699 (4444) |
Invested
$3,959.98
Value
$2.3K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
52%
1000-920 (1920)
ImJustKenInvested
$692.72
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
53%
3027-2635 (5662)
tetraseInvested
$397.32
Value
$402.24
PnL
+$4.92
Record
60%
786-531 (1317)
StarMasterInvested
$195.75
Value
$261.66
PnL
+$25.49
Record
53%
1780-1574 (3354)
Invested
$27.39
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$7.43
Record
39%
1745-2699 (4444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.