Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 86¢ · $983 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$983.3
$120.77
75.5¢ → 85.5¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 77.1¢ | $372.59 | $468.75 | +$70.23 | 52% 1000-920 (1920) |
SI singularitymanCTR | No | $228.3 | $228.3 | -$69.4 | 42% 135-184 (319) |
 archaic | Yesavg 70.5¢ | $1.2K | $150.07 | +$246.74 | 84% 1816-334 (2150) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Noavg 28¢ | $262.98 | $136.19 | -$126.8 | 55% 402-328 (730) |
Invested
$372.59
Value
$468.75
PnL
+$70.23
Record
52%
1000-920 (1920)
Invested
$228.3
Value
$228.3
PnL
-$69.4
Record
42%
135-184 (319)
archaicInvested
$1,172.99
Value
$150.07
PnL
+$246.74
Record
84%
1816-334 (2150)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$262.98
Value
$136.19
PnL
-$126.8
Record
55%
402-328 (730)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.