Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $592 held · ended Oct 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$592.19
$107.29
73.7¢ → 97.3¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
569h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 74¢ | $83.44 | $261.73 | +$78.75 | 52% 999-914 (1913) |
 paddaa | Noavg 74.2¢ | $190.78 | $256.78 | +$66 | 57% 797-607 (1404) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $24.39 | $30.99 | +$6.61 | 37% 1928-3336 (5264) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR<$100 | Yes | $27.79 | $27.79 | -$51.85 | 53% 356-310 (666) |
 Gohst<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $7.11 | $14.89 | +$7.78 | 49% 722-757 (1479) |
Invested
$83.44
Value
$261.73
PnL
+$78.75
Record
52%
999-914 (1913)
paddaaInvested
$190.78
Value
$256.78
PnL
+$66
Record
57%
797-607 (1404)
Invested
$24.39
Value
$30.99
PnL
+$6.61
Record
37%
1928-3336 (5264)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100Invested
$27.79
Value
$27.79
PnL
-$51.85
Record
53%
356-310 (666)
Gohst<$100Invested
$7.11
Value
$14.89
PnL
+$7.78
Record
49%
722-757 (1479)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.