Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $919 held · ended Nov 24, 2025

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Mon, Nov 24, 2025View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$919.19

Combined PnL

-$11.93

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 97.3¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$912.9

Total Shares928

Combined PnL-$7.18

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.29

Total Shares393

Combined PnL-$4.75

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 99.7¢	$590.48	$582.89	-$7.56	42% 9370-12944 (22314)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Noavg 99.7¢	$228.25	$225.34	-$2.92	33% 5795-11666 (17461)
archaic	Noavg 95.3¢	$101.38	$104.68	+$3.3	85% 1850-335 (2185)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$5.8	$3.2	-$2.6	46% 1779-2122 (3901)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$5.24	$3.09	-$2.15	36% 14275-25592 (39867)

influenz.eth

Invested

$590.48

Value

$582.89

PnL

-$7.56

Record

42%

9370-12944 (22314)

wokerjoesleeper

Invested

$228.25

Value

$225.34

PnL

-$2.92

Record

33%

5795-11666 (17461)

archaic

Invested

$101.38

Value

$104.68

PnL

+$3.3

Record

85%

1850-335 (2185)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$2.6

Record

46%

1779-2122 (3901)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.24

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$2.15

Record

36%

14275-25592 (39867)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.