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NoYesYes
2B9S<$100Yes
balthazarCTR<$100NoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Ján Forgáč win the 2026 Trenčín mayoral election?
Resolved Yes. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 25%
Total Value
$302.04
Combined PnL
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,587
Combined PnL$-1.2K
Yes4 traders
Total Value$302.04
Total Shares302
Combined PnL+$97.78
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 38.7¢ | $892.05 | — | $-1.2K | 36% 12900-22608 (35508) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 71.9¢ | $152.56 | $212.04 | +$59.48 | 59% 174-122 (296) |
SN Snoorrason<$100 | Yesavg 53.6¢ | $37.5 | $70 | +$32.5 | 39% 1115-1731 (2846) |
2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $22.4 | $20 | +$5.8 | 17% 3123-14824 (17947) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 5.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 12603-7152 (19755) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 65% 4174-2208 (6382) |
AJ
AJSVCTRInvested
$892.05
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
36%
12900-22608 (35508)
0X
0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Invested
$152.56
Value
$212.04
PnL
+$59.48
Record
59%
174-122 (296)
SN
Snoorrason<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
$70
PnL
+$32.5
Record
39%
1115-1731 (2846)
2B9S<$100Invested
$22.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$5.8
Record
17%
3123-14824 (17947)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
12603-7152 (19755)
0X
0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
4174-2208 (6382)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4b27eedc...d51bc8
Slug
will-jan-forgac-win-the-2026-trencin-mayoral-election