Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 96¢ · $362 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 20%
$361.59
$119.39
Research grade
AvoidNo at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
645h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gohst | Noavg 57¢ | $210.99 | $356.28 | +$143.99 | 49% 722-755 (1477) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $24.11 | $4.09 | -$20.02 | 57% 2308-1724 (4032) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $4.36 | $0.91 | -$3.45 | 40% 1736-2647 (4383) |
 fireponbabylonCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $0.24 | -$1.14 | 44% 364-463 (827) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.03 | $0.07 | -$0 | 48% 1996-2164 (4160) |
GohstInvested
$210.99
Value
$356.28
PnL
+$143.99
Record
49%
722-755 (1477)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$24.11
Value
$4.09
PnL
-$20.02
Record
57%
2308-1724 (4032)
Invested
$4.36
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$3.45
Record
40%
1736-2647 (4383)
fireponbabylonCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$1.14
Record
44%
364-463 (827)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1996-2164 (4160)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.