Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $577 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$577.13
$12.68
94.5¢ → 95.7¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 94.4¢ | $4.78 | $478.25 | +$5.93 | 77% 1335-396 (1731) |
 archaic<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $79.16 | $79.83 | +$0.67 | 84% 1813-333 (2146) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $10.25 | $13.27 | +$3.02 | 60% 968-642 (1610) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.66 | $5.78 | +$3.06 | 48% 1998-2168 (4166) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.