Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Iliana Iotova win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 23¢ · $440 held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$440.24
$151.87
83.2¢ → 22.9¢
-72% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Donny.T | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $52.32 | $305.87 | +$253.56 | 72% 465-178 (643) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 85.9¢ | $61.1 | $68.7 | +$7.6 | 36% 13062-22853 (35915) |
 archaicCTR | Noavg 95.4¢ | $440.24 | $45.06 | -$147.94 | 84% 1813-333 (2146) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.7¢ | $42.93 | $20.61 | +$38.66 | 47% 1731-1928 (3659) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.