Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$5.15

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 62¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,528

Combined PnL-$48.01

Yes2 traders

Total Value$24.64

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$53.16

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vinii	Noavg 60¢	$1.2K	$947.63	+$2.27	74% 2583-928 (3511)
LI lissartter	Noavg 80¢	$712.92	$424.1	-$49.76	42% 5126-7041 (12167)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 51¢	$52.08	$50	-$0.52	43% 269-355 (624)
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$159.09	$17.1	+$60.06	36% 13957-24692 (38649)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$17.21	$7.53	-$6.89	57% 11904-9099 (21003)

vinii

Invested

$1,204.69

Value

$947.63

PnL

+$2.27

Record

74%

2583-928 (3511)

lissartter

Invested

$712.92

Value

$424.1

PnL

-$49.76

Record

42%

5126-7041 (12167)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$52.08

Value

$50

PnL

-$0.52

Record

43%

269-355 (624)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$159.09

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$60.06

Record

36%

13957-24692 (38649)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.21

Value

$7.53

PnL

-$6.89

Record

57%

11904-9099 (21003)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.9%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$56.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

156.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.