Will Gord Krantz win the 2026 Milton mayoral election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $858 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$858.42
$7.28
47.6¢ → 83.5¢
+75% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 48.6¢ | $669.45 | $594.09 | +$12.81 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 41.1¢ | $217.33 | $240.57 | +$23.25 | 53% 1055-950 (2005) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $39.6 | $18 | -$21.6 | 62% 20089-12550 (32639) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $4.79 | $4.79 | +$0 | 77% 10988-3350 (14338) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $14.15 | $0.97 | -$7.18 | 42% 5153-7078 (12231) |
Invested
$669.45
Value
$594.09
PnL
+$12.81
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
Invested
$217.33
Value
$240.57
PnL
+$23.25
Record
53%
1055-950 (2005)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.6
Value
$18
PnL
-$21.6
Record
62%
20089-12550 (32639)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.79
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
10988-3350 (14338)
Invested
$14.15
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$7.18
Record
42%
5153-7078 (12231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.