Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 83¢ · $744 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$744.27
-$158.87
65.3¢ → 82.7¢
+27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $186.73 | $382.66 | -$162.06 | 75% 445-152 (597) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 91.5¢ | $300.46 | $271.49 | -$18.47 | 50% 381-383 (764) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876<$100 | Yesavg 65.7¢ | $65.78 | $85.99 | +$20.21 | 45% 107-129 (236) |
 StarMaster<$100 | Yesavg 56.8¢ | $2.68 | $4.14 | +$1.45 | 53% 1803-1592 (3395) |
KimchiCapitalInvested
$186.73
Value
$382.66
PnL
-$162.06
Record
75%
445-152 (597)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$300.46
Value
$271.49
PnL
-$18.47
Record
50%
381-383 (764)
Invested
$65.78
Value
$85.99
PnL
+$20.21
Record
45%
107-129 (236)
StarMaster<$100Invested
$2.68
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$1.45
Record
53%
1803-1592 (3395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.