Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$426.76

Smart Money Entry

30.6¢ → 53¢

+73% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,028

Combined PnL+$426.76

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

565h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FrozenParasite	Yesavg 30.3¢	$95.82	$519.5	+$208.63	55% 435-354 (789)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 28.6¢	$246.05	$438.59	+$205.44	53% 1055-950 (2005)
StarMaster<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$39.41	$51	+$11.59	53% 1813-1600 (3413)
FI firegold<$100	Yesavg 49.5¢	$20.72	$21.34	+$0.63	59% 306-210 (516)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 45.8¢	$3.24	$3.72	+$0.48	55% 302-251 (553)

FrozenParasite

Yes

Invested

$95.82

Value

$519.5

PnL

+$208.63

Record

55%

435-354 (789)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$246.05

Value

$438.59

PnL

+$205.44

Record

53%

1055-950 (2005)

StarMaster<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.41

Value

$51

PnL

+$11.59

Record

53%

1813-1600 (3413)

firegold<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.72

Value

$21.34

PnL

+$0.63

Record

59%

306-210 (516)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$0.48

Record

55%

302-251 (553)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

565h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.