Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.6K
-$205.49
95.1¢ → 96.9¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
3388h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 94.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$3.78 | 66% 1104-562 (1666) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 97¢ | $371.06 | $373.3 | +$0.71 | 77% 10949-3335 (14284) |
AV aviato | Noavg 96¢ | $120 | $121.5 | +$1.5 | 86% 2405-405 (2810) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $178.1 | $74.38 | -$103.72 | 60% 1754-1157 (2911) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $133.16 | $25.4 | -$107.75 | 36% 2000-3523 (5523) |
DEGENKHANInvested
$1,970.12
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$3.78
Record
66%
1104-562 (1666)
Invested
$371.06
Value
$373.3
PnL
+$0.71
Record
77%
10949-3335 (14284)
Invested
$120
Value
$121.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
86%
2405-405 (2810)
aenews2CTRInvested
$178.1
Value
$74.38
PnL
-$103.72
Record
60%
1754-1157 (2911)
Invested
$133.16
Value
$25.4
PnL
-$107.75
Record
36%
2000-3523 (5523)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.