Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Gavi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Resolved No. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
32
Yes 100%
$0
$-12.4K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 32 top traders (100%)32 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $4.4K | — | $-4.4K | 45% 2700-3243 (5943) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $2.0K | — | $-2.0K | 62% 20228-12642 (32870) |
 DonaldinhoTrumpitoCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 68% 499-239 (738) |
 CoffeeDespiserCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $648.44 | — | -$648.44 | — |
AV aviatoCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $552.23 | — | -$552.23 | 85% 2408-430 (2838) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $194.55 | — | -$194.55 | 45% 516-629 (1145) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $296.15 | — | -$296.15 | 53% 1991-1783 (3774) |
AL alex20011CTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $277.28 | — | -$277.28 | 48% 3388-3627 (7015) |
P1 P1kasoCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $261.45 | — | -$261.45 | 63% 734-426 (1160) |
HO HourglassCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $254.07 | — | -$254.07 | 77% 8529-2565 (11094) |
PO pollo07CTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $224.19 | — | -$224.19 | 32% 292-610 (902) |
 sciuboiCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $182.62 | — | -$182.62 | 42% 185-258 (443) |
AK akrollCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $216.89 | — | -$216.89 | 33% 295-592 (887) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $209.01 | — | -$209.01 | 36% 2007-3557 (5564) |
 DropperCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $217.85 | — | -$217.85 | 72% 1131-448 (1579) |
KA kaxel78CTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $196.86 | — | -$196.86 | 32% 242-512 (754) |
ZE zerone777CTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $167.19 | — | -$167.19 | 42% 370-508 (878) |
PO poposubCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $163.27 | — | -$163.27 | 47% 2027-2292 (4319) |
KL klli27CTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $147.63 | — | -$147.63 | 32% 269-575 (844) |
 BigMackyGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $64.02 | — | -$64.02 | 19% 96-405 (501) |
RE rebotsliafCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $138.84 | — | -$138.84 | 24% 179-555 (734) |
LI LikaseentCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $117.01 | — | -$117.01 | 30% 176-414 (590) |
VA Vale54holiCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $112.26 | — | -$112.26 | 28% 151-380 (531) |
 arjennnnnCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $113.2 | — | -$113.2 | 70% 801-340 (1141) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $68.96 | — | -$68.96 | 57% 12548-9494 (22042) |
Invested
$4,428.8
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
45%
2700-3243 (5943)
balthazarCTRInvested
$1,975.18
Value
—
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
62%
20228-12642 (32870)
DonaldinhoTrumpitoCTRInvested
$1,123.5
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
68%
499-239 (738)
CoffeeDespiserCTRInvested
$648.44
Value
—
PnL
-$648.44
Record
—
Invested
$552.23
Value
—
PnL
-$552.23
Record
85%
2408-430 (2838)
Invested
$194.55
Value
—
PnL
-$194.55
Record
45%
516-629 (1145)
Invested
$296.15
Value
—
PnL
-$296.15
Record
53%
1991-1783 (3774)
Invested
$277.28
Value
—
PnL
-$277.28
Record
48%
3388-3627 (7015)
Invested
$261.45
Value
—
PnL
-$261.45
Record
63%
734-426 (1160)
Invested
$254.07
Value
—
PnL
-$254.07
Record
77%
8529-2565 (11094)
Invested
$224.19
Value
—
PnL
-$224.19
Record
32%
292-610 (902)
sciuboiCTRInvested
$182.62
Value
—
PnL
-$182.62
Record
42%
185-258 (443)
Invested
$216.89
Value
—
PnL
-$216.89
Record
33%
295-592 (887)
Invested
$209.01
Value
—
PnL
-$209.01
Record
36%
2007-3557 (5564)
DropperCTRInvested
$217.85
Value
—
PnL
-$217.85
Record
72%
1131-448 (1579)
Invested
$196.86
Value
—
PnL
-$196.86
Record
32%
242-512 (754)
Invested
$167.19
Value
—
PnL
-$167.19
Record
42%
370-508 (878)
Invested
$163.27
Value
—
PnL
-$163.27
Record
47%
2027-2292 (4319)
Invested
$147.63
Value
—
PnL
-$147.63
Record
32%
269-575 (844)
BigMackyGCTR<$100Invested
$64.02
Value
—
PnL
-$64.02
Record
19%
96-405 (501)
Invested
$138.84
Value
—
PnL
-$138.84
Record
24%
179-555 (734)
Invested
$117.01
Value
—
PnL
-$117.01
Record
30%
176-414 (590)
Invested
$112.26
Value
—
PnL
-$112.26
Record
28%
151-380 (531)
arjennnnnCTRInvested
$113.2
Value
—
PnL
-$113.2
Record
70%
801-340 (1141)
Invested
$68.96
Value
—
PnL
-$68.96
Record
57%
12548-9494 (22042)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bigggggggg
CTRYes — $0
balthazar
CTRYes — $0
DonaldinhoTrumpito
CTRYes — $0
CoffeeDespiser
CTRYes — $0
aviato
CTRYes — $0
BreakTheBank
CTRYes — $0
peepeepooppoop
CTRYes — $0
alex20011
CTRYes — $0
P1kaso
CTRYes — $0
Hourglass
CTRYes — $0