Will Frank Scarpitti win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$4.2K
-$936.92
92¢ → 97.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
570h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thoodr | Yesavg 93.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$84.27 | 96% 555-23 (578) |
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 91.5¢ | $27.35 | $1.3K | +$42.39 | 67% 702-340 (1042) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 91.3¢ | $451 | $439.5 | +$27.9 | 55% 402-328 (730) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 85.4¢ | $212.72 | $241.9 | +$242.77 | 52% 1000-920 (1920) |
 GohstCTR | Noavg 35.1¢ | $1.5K | $149.19 | $-1.3K | 49% 722-757 (1479) |
Invested
$1,992.83
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$84.27
Record
96%
555-23 (578)
mrworldwideInvested
$27.35
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$42.39
Record
67%
702-340 (1042)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$451
Value
$439.5
PnL
+$27.9
Record
55%
402-328 (730)
Invested
$212.72
Value
$241.9
PnL
+$242.77
Record
52%
1000-920 (1920)
GohstCTRInvested
$1,475.22
Value
$149.19
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
49%
722-757 (1479)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.