Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.7K
$249.67
77¢ → 92.5¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
585h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 86.9¢ | $970.39 | $1.0K | +$57.32 | 85% 1847-335 (2182) |
LI lineth | Noavg 60.4¢ | $399.13 | $611.76 | +$212.62 | 41% 240-349 (589) |
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $28.88 | $14.79 | -$15.27 | 21% 138-505 (643) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $9.48 | $3.95 | -$5.85 | 49% 727-759 (1486) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 48.7¢ | $0.95 | $1.78 | +$0.84 | 53% 4657-4180 (8837) |
archaicInvested
$970.39
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$57.32
Record
85%
1847-335 (2182)
Invested
$399.13
Value
$611.76
PnL
+$212.62
Record
41%
240-349 (589)
Invested
$28.88
Value
$14.79
PnL
-$15.27
Record
21%
138-505 (643)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$9.48
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$5.85
Record
49%
727-759 (1486)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$1.78
PnL
+$0.84
Record
53%
4657-4180 (8837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.