Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$3.9K
$94.96
93¢ → 98.6¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$10.85 | 81% 225-52 (277) |
SI singularityman | Noavg 73.2¢ | $447.87 | $593.78 | +$145.91 | 42% 137-191 (328) |
PK pkzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $94 | $32.21 | -$61.79 | 57% 458-345 (803) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.