Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.0K
$256.7
84¢ → 96.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
508h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 80¢ | $206.37 | $962 | +$168.89 | 89% 1613-199 (1812) |
 alanhutton | Noavg 89.2¢ | $838.16 | $905.48 | +$67.32 | 70% 300-131 (431) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $18 | $76.96 | +$19.52 | — |
TP tphhhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $23.19 | $19.67 | -$3.52 | 91% 550-56 (606) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $5 | $9.5 | +$4.5 | 48% 1995-2156 (4151) |
elmcap2Invested
$206.37
Value
$962
PnL
+$168.89
Record
89%
1613-199 (1812)
alanhuttonInvested
$838.16
Value
$905.48
PnL
+$67.32
Record
70%
300-131 (431)
Invested
$18
Value
$76.96
PnL
+$19.52
Record
—
Invested
$23.19
Value
$19.67
PnL
-$3.52
Record
91%
550-56 (606)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$4.5
Record
48%
1995-2156 (4151)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.