Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 78¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 26

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$199.51

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,723

Combined PnL+$157.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$269.31

Total Shares1,795

Combined PnL+$41.7

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 83¢	$6.4K	$6.6K	+$157.81	64% 13022-7449 (20471)
TR TrueDignityCTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$112.15	$166.42	+$54.27	32% 33-69 (102)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$77.47	$72.9	-$4.57	50% 501-498 (999)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$38	$30	-$8	57% 14718-11074 (25792)

balthazar

Invested

$6,406.55

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$157.81

Record

64%

13022-7449 (20471)

TrueDignityCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.15

Value

$166.42

PnL

+$54.27

Record

32%

33-69 (102)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.47

Value

$72.9

PnL

-$4.57

Record

50%

501-498 (999)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38

Value

$30

PnL

-$8

Record

57%

14718-11074 (25792)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.7%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.