Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 6–8%?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$6.5K
$207.69
95.6¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 96¢ | $5.1K | $4.5K | +$203.64 | 64% 13150-7530 (20680) |
AL almost-never | Noavg 95¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$0 | 44% 154-198 (352) |
MD MdkfundCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $255 | $255 | +$0 | — 2-0 (2) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 91.3¢ | $449.52 | $127.37 | +$7.55 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
TH themainCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $41.69 | $37.5 | -$4.19 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $13.59 | $14.28 | +$0.69 | 38% 67-108 (175) |
00 0x005e...6d8e<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.99 | $10.98 | -$0.01 | — |
balthazarInvested
$5,147.42
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$203.64
Record
64%
13150-7530 (20680)
Invested
$1,560.84
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
154-198 (352)
Invested
$255
Value
$255
PnL
+$0
Record
—
2-0 (2)
Invested
$449.52
Value
$127.37
PnL
+$7.55
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
Invested
$41.69
Value
$37.5
PnL
-$4.19
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$13.59
Value
$14.28
PnL
+$0.69
Record
38%
67-108 (175)
Invested
$10.99
Value
$10.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.