Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $183 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$182.81
$95.16
96.7¢ → 0.3¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 10.9¢ | $238.57 | $93.19 | +$79.15 | 36% 13446-23443 (36889) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $2.4 | $53.06 | +$37.94 | 18% 3341-15435 (18776) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 97¢ | $40.58 | $23.96 | -$16.62 | 74% 2496-894 (3390) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $11.59 | $12.37 | +$1.26 | 56% 1151-913 (2064) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $6.8 | $0.23 | -$6.57 | 51% 4547-4285 (8832) |
Invested
$238.57
Value
$93.19
PnL
+$79.15
Record
36%
13446-23443 (36889)
2B9S<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$53.06
PnL
+$37.94
Record
18%
3341-15435 (18776)
viniiCTRInvested
$40.58
Value
$23.96
PnL
-$16.62
Record
74%
2496-894 (3390)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$11.59
Value
$12.37
PnL
+$1.26
Record
56%
1151-913 (2064)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$6.57
Record
51%
4547-4285 (8832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.