Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$9.48

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 99.9¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,751

Combined PnL+$15.96

No1 trader

Total Value$12.99

Total Shares419

Combined PnL-$6.49

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+54 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

466h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DonationsReceiver	Yesavg 96¢	$915.48	$924.06	+$8.58	61% 230-145 (375)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 99.5¢	$632.8	$626.67	-$0.09	77% 1336-396 (1732)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 94¢	$102.3	$107.2	+$5.77	71% 271-112 (383)
Bromley86<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$39.47	$41.13	+$1.66	90% 690-80 (770)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Noavg 4.6¢	$19.47	$12.99	-$6.49	36% 13223-23096 (36319)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 98.5¢	$9.85	$9.9	+$0.05	56% 3445-2681 (6126)

DonationsReceiver

Yes

Invested

$915.48

Value

$924.06

PnL

+$8.58

Record

61%

230-145 (375)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$632.8

Value

$626.67

PnL

-$0.09

Record

77%

1336-396 (1732)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$102.3

Value

$107.2

PnL

+$5.77

Record

71%

271-112 (383)

Bromley86<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.47

Value

$41.13

PnL

+$1.66

Record

90%

690-80 (770)

AJSVCTR<$100

Invested

$19.47

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$6.49

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

3445-2681 (6126)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+54 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

466h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.