Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (50%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
-$509.3
92.7¢ → 49.9¢
-46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
327h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fraj0laCTR | Yesavg 93.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.1K | -$828.62 | 64% 206-116 (322) |
 sciuboiCTR | Yesavg 92.6¢ | $531.23 | $966.57 | +$36.86 | 48% 178-192 (370) |
 vinii | Noavg 7.2¢ | $130.15 | $711.05 | +$580.91 | 74% 2413-866 (3279) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Yesavg 91.4¢ | $1.0K | $554 | -$302.17 | 57% 14725-11079 (25804) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 75.1¢ | $255.2 | $208.98 | +$136.03 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 8.8¢ | $31.81 | $155.15 | +$198.49 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 75.1¢ | $70.59 | $53.83 | -$62.46 | |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $28.14 | $31.86 | +$3.72 | 17% 3153-14932 (18085) |
fraj0laCTRInvested
$1,917.17
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$828.62
Record
64%
206-116 (322)
sciuboiCTRInvested
$531.23
Value
$966.57
PnL
+$36.86
Record
48%
178-192 (370)
viniiInvested
$130.15
Value
$711.05
PnL
+$580.91
Record
74%
2413-866 (3279)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$1,022.26
Value
$554
PnL
-$302.17
Record
57%
14725-11079 (25804)
Invested
$255.2
Value
$208.98
PnL
+$136.03
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
Both legs:
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$28.14
Value
$31.86
PnL
+$3.72
Record
17%
3153-14932 (18085)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.