Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Goiás?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $869 held · ends Oct 26

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$869.22

Combined PnL

-$11.09

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 98.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$868.88

Total Shares875

Combined PnL-$5.82

No1 trader

Total Value$0.34

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$5.27

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

192h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OL OLOTH	Yesavg 99¢	$340.84	$341.53	-$1.2	96% 720-29 (749)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 99.5¢	$277.73	$276.78	-$2.9	77% 1331-396 (1727)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 95.6¢	$146.53	$152.04	+$4.44	71% 271-112 (383)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Yesavg 92.4¢	$112.14	$98.53	-$6.15	51% 106-101 (207)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$5.59	$0.34	-$5.27	61% 1506-979 (2485)

OLOTH

Yes

Invested

$340.84

Value

$341.53

PnL

-$1.2

Record

96%

720-29 (749)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$277.73

Value

$276.78

PnL

-$2.9

Record

77%

1331-396 (1727)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$146.53

Value

$152.04

PnL

+$4.44

Record

71%

271-112 (383)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes

Invested

$112.14

Value

$98.53

PnL

-$6.15

Record

51%

106-101 (207)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Invested

$5.59

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$5.27

Record

61%

1506-979 (2485)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

192h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.