Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $475 held · ends Nov 5

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$475.47

Combined PnL

$311.27

Smart Money Entry

10.7¢ → 5.5¢

-49% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$438.95

Total Shares4,147

Combined PnL+$309.19

No1 trader

Total Value$36.52

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$2.08

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

355h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$33.27	$308.11	+$310.54	57% 796-606 (1402)
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$124.99	$70	-$55	73% 2882-1052 (3934)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$52.97	$51.57	+$48.47	36% 13086-22900 (35986)
RememberAmalek<$100	Noavg 84¢	$34.86	$36.52	+$2.08	56% 951-746 (1697)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$3.6	$6	+$2.4	17% 3153-14932 (18085)
sciuboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.49	$3.27	+$2.78	48% 178-192 (370)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$33.27

Value

$308.11

PnL

+$310.54

Record

57%

796-606 (1402)

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$124.99

Value

$70

PnL

-$55

Record

73%

2882-1052 (3934)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.97

Value

$51.57

PnL

+$48.47

Record

36%

13086-22900 (35986)

RememberAmalek<$100

Invested

$34.86

Value

$36.52

PnL

+$2.08

Record

56%

951-746 (1697)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

PnL

+$2.4

Record

17%

3153-14932 (18085)

sciuboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$2.78

Record

48%

178-192 (370)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

355h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.5%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1438.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

1538.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.