Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 13¢ · $779 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$778.65
$476.8
11.7¢ → 13¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
442h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Yes | $558.76 | $558.76 | +$466.65 | 57% 787-601 (1388) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $98.04 | $102.17 | +$4.13 | 51% 104-98 (202) |
 Tenebrus7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $50.64 | $58.66 | +$3.51 | 73% 2877-1049 (3926) |
 sciuboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $28.48 | $29.86 | +$1.38 | 48% 177-192 (369) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $26.95 | $29.2 | +$1.12 | 56% 951-745 (1696) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$558.76
Value
$558.76
PnL
+$466.65
Record
57%
787-601 (1388)
Invested
$98.04
Value
$102.17
PnL
+$4.13
Record
51%
104-98 (202)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100Invested
$50.64
Value
$58.66
PnL
+$3.51
Record
73%
2877-1049 (3926)
sciuboiCTR<$100Invested
$28.48
Value
$29.86
PnL
+$1.38
Record
48%
177-192 (369)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$26.95
Value
$29.2
PnL
+$1.12
Record
56%
951-745 (1696)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.