Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will fewer than 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Jun 30, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Jun 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.49

Combined PnL

-$164.17

Smart Money Entry

16.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.49

Total Shares989

Combined PnL-$164.17

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

142h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$8.09	$0.37	-$122.1	36% 12767-22362 (35129)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$18.44	$0.06	-$18.39	51% 104-98 (202)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$12.51	$0.04	-$12.48	35% 265-486 (751)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$9.82	$0.03	-$9.79	65% 4145-2190 (6335)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$1.42	$0	-$1.42	31% 128-281 (409)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$8.09

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$122.1

Record

36%

12767-22362 (35129)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.44

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$18.39

Record

51%

104-98 (202)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.51

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$12.48

Record

35%

265-486 (751)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.82

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$9.79

Record

65%

4145-2190 (6335)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

PnL

-$1.42

Record

31%

128-281 (409)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

142h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.