Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $627 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$627.16
$39.14
84.2¢ → 88.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
229h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo | Noavg 90¢ | $17.1 | $348.8 | +$14.16 | 61% 2746-1784 (4530) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 71.9¢ | $185.31 | $150.21 | -$0.09 | 36% 13446-23443 (36889) |
MA MaxVisionCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.4¢ | $38.98 | $58.84 | +$19.86 | 37% 40-68 (108) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $52.99 | $53.3 | +$0.3 | 74% 100-36 (136) |
 rabbit007<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $16 | +$4.9 | 53% 344-305 (649) |
Invested
$17.1
Value
$348.8
PnL
+$14.16
Record
61%
2746-1784 (4530)
Invested
$185.31
Value
$150.21
PnL
-$0.09
Record
36%
13446-23443 (36889)
Invested
$38.98
Value
$58.84
PnL
+$19.86
Record
37%
40-68 (108)
Invested
$52.99
Value
$53.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
74%
100-36 (136)
rabbit007<$100Invested
$12
Value
$16
PnL
+$4.9
Record
53%
344-305 (649)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.