Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$4.5K
$46.31
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan | Noavg 85.9¢ | $4.1K | $4.3K | +$191.25 | 77% 221-65 (286) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $2.26 | $217.81 | -$141 | 60% 3194-2143 (5337) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $14.3 | $10.36 | -$3.94 | 45% 128-155 (283) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.