Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$2.16

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,586

Combined PnL-$0.99

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$1.17

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.8¢	$984.03	$983.54	-$0.49	47% 2498-2824 (5322)
balthazar	Noavg 99.7¢	$949.16	$949.79	+$0.63	63% 16724-10007 (26731)
HO Hourglass	Noavg 99.8¢	$633.61	$593.32	-$0.37	77% 8485-2481 (10966)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 99.8¢	$423.72	$423.56	-$0.16	42% 9293-12838 (22131)
AL alex20011	Noavg 99.9¢	$216.31	$216.06	-$0.25	49% 3246-3386 (6632)
ME merod	Noavg 99.8¢	$154.69	$154.61	-$0.08	55% 1844-1501 (3345)
12 123987456	Noavg 99.8¢	$113.89	$113.83	-$0.06	45% 1676-2025 (3701)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$82.58	$82.45	-$0.12	44% 370-464 (834)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.85	-$0.09	35% 286-526 (812)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.31	$0.14	-$1.17	36% 13848-24478 (38326)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$984.03

Value

$983.54

PnL

-$0.49

Record

47%

2498-2824 (5322)

balthazar

Invested

$949.16

Value

$949.79

PnL

+$0.63

Record

63%

16724-10007 (26731)

Hourglass

Invested

$633.61

Value

$593.32

PnL

-$0.37

Record

77%

8485-2481 (10966)

influenz.eth

Invested

$423.72

Value

$423.56

PnL

-$0.16

Record

42%

9293-12838 (22131)

alex20011

Invested

$216.31

Value

$216.06

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

3246-3386 (6632)

merod

Invested

$154.69

Value

$154.61

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

1844-1501 (3345)

123987456

Invested

$113.89

Value

$113.83

PnL

-$0.06

Record

45%

1676-2025 (3701)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$82.58

Value

$82.45

PnL

-$0.12

Record

44%

370-464 (834)

akroll<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

35%

286-526 (812)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.17

Record

36%

13848-24478 (38326)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.