Will Ewa Pajor win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 95¢ · $588 held · ends Oct 27

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$587.65

Combined PnL

$3.62

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 95.4¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$524.7

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$3.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$62.95

Total Shares1,368

Combined PnL-$0.02

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME merod	Noavg 95.3¢	$276.4	$276.66	+$0.26	54% 2231-1899 (4130)
balthazar	Noavg 94.1¢	$244.66	$248.04	+$3.38	62% 18410-11080 (29490)
archaicCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$46.49	$38.14	-$7.52	85% 1844-334 (2178)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$16.33	$23.89	+$7.56	41% 1915-2708 (4623)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$0.98	$0.92	-$0.06	42% 5126-7042 (12168)

merod

Invested

$276.4

Value

$276.66

PnL

+$0.26

Record

54%

2231-1899 (4130)

balthazar

Invested

$244.66

Value

$248.04

PnL

+$3.38

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

archaicCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.49

Value

$38.14

PnL

-$7.52

Record

85%

1844-334 (2178)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.33

Value

$23.89

PnL

+$7.56

Record

41%

1915-2708 (4623)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

5126-7042 (12168)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.