Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Eva Nemčovská win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election?
Resolved Yes. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
No 57%
$1.2K
$75.03
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 45¢ | $476.46 | $289.04 | -$196.9 | 36% 12921-22626 (35547) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 63.1¢ | $286.25 | $286.25 | +$105.61 | 59% 174-122 (296) |
SN Snoorrason | Yesavg 48¢ | $130.13 | $271.1 | +$140.97 | 39% 1115-1732 (2847) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 60¢ | $267.9 | $225.14 | +$29.74 | 52% 980-909 (1889) |
 Relaccsed | Yesavg 67¢ | $105.68 | $157.62 | +$51.94 | 55% 1127-906 (2033) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.2¢ | $26.45 | — | +$75.16 | 64% 12621-7155 (19776) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $3.3 | — | -$0.49 | 80% 10154-2597 (12751) |
 paddaaCTR | Noavg 60.5¢ | $131 | — | -$131 | 57% 791-602 (1393) |
Invested
$476.46
Value
$289.04
PnL
-$196.9
Record
36%
12921-22626 (35547)
Invested
$286.25
Value
$286.25
PnL
+$105.61
Record
59%
174-122 (296)
Invested
$130.13
Value
$271.1
PnL
+$140.97
Record
39%
1115-1732 (2847)
Invested
$267.9
Value
$225.14
PnL
+$29.74
Record
52%
980-909 (1889)
RelaccsedInvested
$105.68
Value
$157.62
PnL
+$51.94
Record
55%
1127-906 (2033)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$26.45
Value
—
PnL
+$75.16
Record
64%
12621-7155 (19776)
Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.49
Record
80%
10154-2597 (12751)
paddaaCTRInvested
$131
Value
—
PnL
-$131
Record
57%
791-602 (1393)
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