Will Eva Lindberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
$1.8K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 63.1¢ | $1.9K | $3.8K | +$1.8K | 53% 1079-967 (2046) |
 GohstARB<$100 | Noavg 47.8¢ | $1.5K | $348.07 | $-1.2K | 49% 728-759 (1487) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.8¢ | $1.4K | $230.7 | $-1.2K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48¢ | $61.01 | $117.38 | +$56.37 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.