Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.6K
$327.7
45.1¢ → 78.5¢
+74% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
570h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 39.5¢ | $730.99 | $1.5K | +$719.97 | 55% 402-328 (730) |
 paddaaCTR | Noavg 50.1¢ | $977 | $424.29 | -$552.71 | 57% 797-607 (1404) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 46.5¢ | $244.46 | $420.68 | +$176.22 | 52% 1000-920 (1920) |
 archaic | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $262.11 | $280.6 | +$25.83 | 84% 1816-334 (2150) |
 qizhan1CTR<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $62.68 | $21.07 | -$41.61 | 58% 23-17 (40) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$730.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$719.97
Record
55%
402-328 (730)
paddaaCTRInvested
$977
Value
$424.29
PnL
-$552.71
Record
57%
797-607 (1404)
Invested
$244.46
Value
$420.68
PnL
+$176.22
Record
52%
1000-920 (1920)
archaicInvested
$262.11
Value
$280.6
PnL
+$25.83
Record
84%
1816-334 (2150)
qizhan1CTR<$100Invested
$62.68
Value
$21.07
PnL
-$41.61
Record
58%
23-17 (40)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.