Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of October 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $369 held · ends Nov 1

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$368.55

Combined PnL

$40.9

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 96.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$365.1

Total Shares379

Combined PnL+$42.51

No2 traders

Total Value$3.45

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$1.61

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
theta-thunberg	Yesavg 87.6¢	$411.99	$262.42	+$42.32	56% 419-330 (749)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$86.67	$87.12	+$0.45	57% 15028-11433 (26461)
Dr.mett<$100	Yesavg 98¢	$15.81	$15.56	-$0.26	85% 1372-233 (1605)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Noavg 5.6¢	$4.55	$2.88	-$1.66	36% 13969-24716 (38685)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$0.51	$0.57	+$0.06	57% 12146-9242 (21388)

theta-thunberg

Yes

Invested

$411.99

Value

$262.42

PnL

+$42.32

Record

56%

419-330 (749)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.67

Value

$87.12

PnL

+$0.45

Record

57%

15028-11433 (26461)

Dr.mett<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.81

Value

$15.56

PnL

-$0.26

Record

85%

1372-233 (1605)

AJSVCTR<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$1.66

Record

36%

13969-24716 (38685)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

12146-9242 (21388)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.