Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in October?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 65¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$53.37

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares9,554

Combined PnL-$759.03

No3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,977

Combined PnL+$705.66

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EN En11006	Yesavg 74.9¢	$7.2K	$6.0K	-$759.03	72% 18-7 (25)
GE getbippedCTR	Noavg 25.1¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$624.46	47% 131-149 (280)
PippiTraderCTR	Noavg 28.6¢	$143.04	$194.11	+$52.17	59% 199-137 (336)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100	Noavg 24.9¢	$51.43	$76.57	+$29.04	52% 619-579 (1198)

En11006

Yes

Invested

$7,159.94

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$759.03

Record

72%

18-7 (25)

getbippedCTR

Invested

$1,574.46

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$624.46

Record

47%

131-149 (280)

PippiTraderCTR

Invested

$143.04

Value

$194.11

PnL

+$52.17

Record

59%

199-137 (336)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100

Invested

$51.43

Value

$76.57

PnL

+$29.04

Record

52%

619-579 (1198)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

148.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.