Will Erwin Wiens win the 2026 Niagara-on-the-Lake mayoral election?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 57¢ · $844 held · ends Oct 27

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$843.8

Combined PnL

$9.27

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 57.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$487.94

Total Shares796

Combined PnL+$52.1

No2 traders

Total Value$355.86

Total Shares901

Combined PnL-$42.82

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

1087h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST StudentMoney	Yesavg 51.4¢	$246.65	$285.6	+$38.95	71% 794-318 (1112)
KI KiernanMeisterCTR	Noavg 45¢	$284.36	$249.6	-$34.76	52% 977-904 (1881)
StarMaster	Yesavg 57.4¢	$172.12	$192	+$9.38	53% 1765-1559 (3324)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Noavg 43¢	$59.29	$106.26	-$8.07	82% 3241-717 (3958)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 46.8¢	$10.25	$10.34	+$3.77	80% 10129-2585 (12714)

StudentMoney

Yes

Invested

$246.65

Value

$285.6

PnL

+$38.95

Record

71%

794-318 (1112)

KiernanMeisterCTR

Invested

$284.36

Value

$249.6

PnL

-$34.76

Record

52%

977-904 (1881)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$172.12

Value

$192

PnL

+$9.38

Record

53%

1765-1559 (3324)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Invested

$59.29

Value

$106.26

PnL

-$8.07

Record

82%

3241-717 (3958)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$3.77

Record

80%

10129-2585 (12714)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

1087h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.5%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.