Will Erling Haaland (Man City) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 68¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$72.91

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 67.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,692

Combined PnL-$26.7

No3 traders

Total Value$302.28

Total Shares930

Combined PnL-$46.21

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

531h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO Tobias1909	Yesavg 74.4¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$116.7	57% 379-291 (670)
StarMaster	Yesavg 58.5¢	$584.99	$674.99	+$90	53% 1810-1599 (3409)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$236.31	$207.89	-$28.43	60% 1339-877 (2216)
LE legioncreCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$73.2	$59.47	-$13.73	— 7-4 (11)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Noavg 36.3¢	$38.98	$34.92	-$4.06	44% 1230-1538 (2768)

Tobias1909

Yes

Invested

$1,259.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$116.7

Record

57%

379-291 (670)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$584.99

Value

$674.99

PnL

+$90

Record

53%

1810-1599 (3409)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Invested

$236.31

Value

$207.89

PnL

-$28.43

Record

60%

1339-877 (2216)

legioncreCTR<$100

Invested

$73.2

Value

$59.47

PnL

-$13.73

Record

—

7-4 (11)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Invested

$38.98

Value

$34.92

PnL

-$4.06

Record

44%

1230-1538 (2768)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

531h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.