Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$2.3K
-$9.13
99.9¢ → 99.4¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AgricultureSecretary | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$10.43 | 83% 3746-765 (4511) |
 vinii | Noavg 99.7¢ | $399 | $398.8 | +$0.87 | 73% 2622-962 (3584) |
P1 P1kaso<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $22.17 | $22.16 | +$0.43 | 64% 728-417 (1145) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.