Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 84¢ · $461 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$460.68
-$5.15
78.9¢ → 84¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StarMaster | Yesavg 78.3¢ | $234.92 | $252 | +$12.58 | 53% 1803-1592 (3395) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 79.5¢ | $129.06 | $132.18 | +$7.32 | 51% 1622-1582 (3204) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.8¢ | $95.1 | $64 | -$25.1 | 40% 157-238 (395) |
 balthazar<$100 | Yesavg 83.7¢ | $12.45 | $12.5 | +$0.05 | 62% 18200-10969 (29169) |
StarMasterInvested
$234.92
Value
$252
PnL
+$12.58
Record
53%
1803-1592 (3395)
Invested
$129.06
Value
$132.18
PnL
+$7.32
Record
51%
1622-1582 (3204)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100Invested
$95.1
Value
$64
PnL
-$25.1
Record
40%
157-238 (395)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.45
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
62%
18200-10969 (29169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.