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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Erling Haaland finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$1.41
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares88
Combined PnL-$1.41
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 80%No — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.41 | — | -$1.41 | 82% 228-50 (278) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 20216-12621 (32837) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 45% 2698-3242 (5940) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12546-9489 (22035) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 42% 1262-1766 (3028) |
0X
0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100Invested
$1.41
Value
—
PnL
-$1.41
Record
82%
228-50 (278)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
20216-12621 (32837)
BI
BiggggggggCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
2698-3242 (5940)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12546-9489 (22035)
LE
leegunnerCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1262-1766 (3028)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd834aa5e...d8504f
Slug
will-erling-haaland-finish-4th-in-the-2026-ballon-d-or-20261019193417541