Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Apr 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
No
2
No 100%
$4.0K
$47.23
97¢ → 98.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 sciuboi | Noavg 97¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$45.3 | 42% 192-270 (462) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 97¢ | $155.5 | $157.83 | +$1.92 | 50% 1785-1817 (3602) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.