Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$72.34

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 93.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,051

Combined PnL+$72.73

Yes1 trader

Total Value$63.19

Total Shares972

Combined PnL-$0.39

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Dragontree	Noavg 90¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$30.72	59% 1236-873 (2109)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 87.1¢	$817.64	$877.99	+$36.87	52% 1642-1518 (3160)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.2¢	$63.58	$63.19	-$0.39	60% 978-660 (1638)
GollumGekko<$100	Noavg 78¢	$30.81	$36.93	+$5.14	69% 2060-923 (2983)

Dragontree

Invested

$2,764.79

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$30.72

Record

59%

1236-873 (2109)

cocococococo

Invested

$817.64

Value

$877.99

PnL

+$36.87

Record

52%

1642-1518 (3160)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.58

Value

$63.19

PnL

-$0.39

Record

60%

978-660 (1638)

GollumGekko<$100

Invested

$30.81

Value

$36.93

PnL

+$5.14

Record

69%

2060-923 (2983)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.7%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.