Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $70 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$70.38

Combined PnL

$4.78

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$60.69

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$0.24

Yes3 traders

Total Value$9.14

Total Shares1,902

Combined PnL+$5.02

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
wish-<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$60.15	$60.69	-$0.24	78% 1134-311 (1445)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.26	$3.76	+$1.13	50% 919-923 (1842)
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.49	$3.35	+$1.86	— 2-6 (8)
siickCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0	$2.03	+$2.03	57% 762-571 (1333)

wish-<$100

Invested

$60.15

Value

$60.69

PnL

-$0.24

Record

78%

1134-311 (1445)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$1.13

Record

50%

919-923 (1842)

0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$1.86

Record

—

2-6 (8)

siickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$2.03

Record

57%

762-571 (1333)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6771.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

6871.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.