Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$242.73
70.2¢ → 39.5¢
-44% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
561h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Noavg 70.4¢ | $1.2K | $688.57 | -$468.4 | 60% 968-642 (1610) |
 coockroach1 | Yesavg 41.8¢ | $393.38 | $585.28 | +$191.9 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $486.66 | $380.81 | -$65.85 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $231.73 | $215.32 | -$19.65 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53.4¢ | $210.34 | $165.49 | -$46.2 | |
 cambridgeisaac | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $82.38 | $118.35 | +$35.97 | 57% 1083-810 (1893) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.6 | $8.4 | -$2.2 | 58% 2961-2117 (5078) |
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$1,156.97
Value
$688.57
PnL
-$468.4
Record
60%
968-642 (1610)
coockroach1Invested
$393.38
Value
$585.28
PnL
+$191.9
Record
50%
31-31 (62)
Invested
$486.66
Value
$380.81
PnL
-$65.85
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Both legs:
cambridgeisaacInvested
$82.38
Value
$118.35
PnL
+$35.97
Record
57%
1083-810 (1893)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$2.2
Record
58%
2961-2117 (5078)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.