Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Alabama in the 2026 midterm elections?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
1
Yes 100%
$42.36
-$0.49
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.3¢ | $42.85 | $42.36 | -$0.49 | 60% 181-123 (304) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.