Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $426 held · ends Nov 4

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$426

Combined PnL

$57.84

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 56.5¢

-14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$395.07

Total Shares495

Combined PnL+$52.14

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.25

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$5.7

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 71.6¢	$381.43	$182.08	+$14.3	36% 13969-24716 (38685)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 54.6¢	$114.01	$156.74	+$42.73	53% 1036-933 (1969)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$61.14	$56.25	-$4.89	54% 3633-3138 (6771)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.1¢	$16.25	$21.25	+$5.9	53% 5695-4971 (10666)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$10.2	$10	-$0.2	32% 3859-8035 (11894)

AJSV

Invested

$381.43

Value

$182.08

PnL

+$14.3

Record

36%

13969-24716 (38685)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$114.01

Value

$156.74

PnL

+$42.73

Record

53%

1036-933 (1969)

korda77<$100

Invested

$61.14

Value

$56.25

PnL

-$4.89

Record

54%

3633-3138 (6771)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.25

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$5.9

Record

53%

5695-4971 (10666)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

3859-8035 (11894)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.5%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.