Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.3K
$42.25
65¢ → 67.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+30 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
508h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Yesavg 66.8¢ | $558.51 | $568.67 | +$10.16 | 68% 926-436 (1362) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 63¢ | $449.15 | $481.23 | +$32.08 | 60% 181-123 (304) |
AJ AJSV | Yesavg 63.1¢ | $137.59 | $134.74 | -$2.85 | 36% 13289-23211 (36500) |
 ScottyNooo | Yesavg 66.2¢ | $130.55 | $134.09 | +$2.56 | 51% 1526-1494 (3020) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $6.2 | $6.5 | +$0.3 | 54% 1786-1498 (3284) |
bernardbulletinInvested
$558.51
Value
$568.67
PnL
+$10.16
Record
68%
926-436 (1362)
Invested
$449.15
Value
$481.23
PnL
+$32.08
Record
60%
181-123 (304)
Invested
$137.59
Value
$134.74
PnL
-$2.85
Record
36%
13289-23211 (36500)
ScottyNoooInvested
$130.55
Value
$134.09
PnL
+$2.56
Record
51%
1526-1494 (3020)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
54%
1786-1498 (3284)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.