Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 89¢ · $911 held
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$910.75
$293.06
65.8¢ → 88.9¢
+35% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
591h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
22 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 57.1¢ | $397.98 | $661.47 | +$263.49 | 55% 435-354 (789) |
 clazzy1 | Yesavg 98.3¢ | $136.14 | $122.32 | -$11.47 | 63% 367-220 (587) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $15 | $72.25 | +$41.75 | 48% 2024-2230 (4254) |
ST Stonktrader<$100 | Yesavg 91.4¢ | $56 | $50.32 | -$0.89 | 75% 157-53 (210) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Yesavg 91.5¢ | $4.09 | $4.28 | +$0.19 | 50% 653-645 (1298) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$397.98
Value
$661.47
PnL
+$263.49
Record
55%
435-354 (789)
clazzy1Invested
$136.14
Value
$122.32
PnL
-$11.47
Record
63%
367-220 (587)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
$72.25
PnL
+$41.75
Record
48%
2024-2230 (4254)
Invested
$56
Value
$50.32
PnL
-$0.89
Record
75%
157-53 (210)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$4.28
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
653-645 (1298)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.